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    What is the probability of this?

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    ButterySmoothStride
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    What is the probability of this?

    Post by ButterySmoothStride on Fri Jan 16, 2009 7:26 pm

    Someone I know made a pretty lofty claim. He claimed to have run a 16:02 3 mile during gym class. He doesn't run track or cross country. He plays baseball and basketball and works out to "stay fit." He also smokes cigarettes. It's safe to assume he was wearing trainers and gym clothes, not racing shoes/clothes. What is the probability that he actually did this? I personally find it highly unlikely. Anyone who can run 16:02 cold would most likely be way under 14 minutes with training.
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    runner_dude
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by runner_dude on Fri Jan 16, 2009 7:36 pm

    If he smokes, I'd call BS right away. Challenge him to a race to back it up. Or talk to the Gym teacher, they'd probably know.
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    CT Track
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by CT Track on Fri Jan 16, 2009 7:41 pm

    Our 4:21 miler smokes and he runs fine at meets. He may be stretching the truth, but it's possible he can keep a decent pace. You don't have to be a cross country runner to be physically fit. A very narrow minded stereotype.

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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by ButterySmoothStride on Fri Jan 16, 2009 7:43 pm

    i'm not denying that he's fit. i'm saying that a 16:02 3 mile is far beyond the realm of "physically fit." a 20 minute 3 miler is reasonably fit. 16:02 is a competitive high school xc time, and he's saying he did it in gym class with trainers.
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    Running With Scissors
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by Running With Scissors on Fri Jan 16, 2009 7:45 pm

    Total BS. Call him out.


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    AudienceOfOne
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by AudienceOfOne on Fri Jan 16, 2009 7:58 pm

    Who cares? It's obvious he didn't do it.


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    running_violet
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by running_violet on Fri Jan 16, 2009 8:01 pm

    i don't buy it. Suspect
    psh, gym class, trainers, bull...
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    mary XC
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by mary XC on Fri Jan 16, 2009 9:01 pm

    was it 3 miles on the track or on a course with hills and stuff? i dont think he did it, but ask the teacher, or somebody in his gym class.
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    T B K
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by T B K on Fri Jan 16, 2009 9:16 pm

    runner_dude wrote:If he smokes, I'd call BS right away. Challenge him to a race to back it up. Or talk to the Gym teacher, they'd probably know.
    +1 on challenging him to a race.
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    calrunner
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by calrunner on Fri Jan 16, 2009 9:37 pm

    Ask him if he knows that 12 laps=3 miles.
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    Lily
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by Lily on Fri Jan 16, 2009 10:04 pm

    i don't think he reallly did it either. but there's a girl on my track team that smokes (pot and cigz), doesn't train, and drinks the night before meets and she runs a 2:10 800. i know the 800 is different though.
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    alex-likes-running
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by alex-likes-running on Fri Jan 16, 2009 10:53 pm

    he didnt do it. go beat him in a race lol

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    hannah
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by hannah on Fri Jan 16, 2009 10:55 pm

    eh i think he might think he ran a 16:02, but he probably cut corners or didn't do all of the laps. it could be total bs though.
    i might believe it if he just smoked/ran it in trainers, but the gym class makes it totally unbelievable. everyone cheats in the gym mile
    (or 3 mile in this case i guess)
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    ctk4xc11
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by ctk4xc11 on Fri Jan 16, 2009 11:37 pm

    um the real question is, who the heck would run 3 miles in gym class?
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    iWearNikes
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by iWearNikes on Sat Jan 17, 2009 12:41 am

    I'm calling shenanigans. kick his ass in a race.
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    Running With Scissors
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by Running With Scissors on Sat Jan 17, 2009 2:32 am

    ctk4xc11 wrote:um the real question is, who the heck would run 3 miles in gym class?


    +1 The only time we are timed in gym is for the mile.


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    alex-likes-running
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by alex-likes-running on Sat Jan 17, 2009 8:52 am

    in my school for middle school its a 3k time trial, (i got like, 18 minutes in 8th grade lol.)
    and for high school
    its a 4k time trial (ran 16:49 last year)

    and then we also have the beep test.

    but my school probably does it differently.

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    Pinthin
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by Pinthin on Sat Jan 17, 2009 12:14 pm

    doubt it.

    (I dont know him) but he could be oblivious how far he actually ran, not that he's trying to look good. ehh basically I dont think he's lying, he's just dumb.
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    FinishingKick
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by FinishingKick on Sun Jan 18, 2009 12:14 am

    Good to see you back, BSS.

    My guess is that it was a grass course and it was nowhere near 3 miles. However we had a 4:08 miler who smoked a few years back. Also A sophomore around here who ran a 4:19 mile yesterday ran an 18 something 5k with no training when he was in 7th grade; just throwing it out there.
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    BagoXC25
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by BagoXC25 on Mon Jan 19, 2009 1:44 pm

    one of my friends ran a 4:57 mile in gym class with no training in 8th grade.
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    Wgrt
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by Wgrt on Mon Jan 19, 2009 3:58 pm

    just ask someone
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by Yosh on Wed Feb 25, 2009 12:01 am

    All this talk of people who smoke/not train and still do well pisses me off. I think this guy is lying. Someone might be able to tough it through a mile or less without training, but a 3 mile in 16 something is unbelievable.
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    Love For Running
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by Love For Running on Sun Mar 01, 2009 12:43 pm

    I don't understand why people feel the need to lie to XC or Track runners and say "Oh I can do this so I'm better than you and I don't train". If they got out and tried for just 1 day of practice they would realize it is one of the hardest sports.
    Two summers ago this kid came to XC Summer Training because he wanted to "stay in shape for wrestling (which is probably the hardest sport but still..) he's goes with the fastest group running and he's like this is a piece of cake (200m in.....we were doing 9 miles) So we told him I bet you can't last 10 minutes with us even though its a "piece of cake" and surely enough 8 minutes later...he's walking.
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    alex-likes-running
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by alex-likes-running on Sun Mar 01, 2009 6:51 pm

    ^ that's unfortunate. at my school, people do consider track and xc as an intense sport...everyone makes fun of boys volleyball and badminton ahhaha.

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    Lily
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    Re: What is the probability of this?

    Post by Lily on Sun Mar 01, 2009 10:04 pm

    haha we don't even have boys volleyball and badminton. but people at my school tend to avoid cross country and track because they think it sounds too hard.

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